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More Than Just an Election

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Two radically different views on the Brazilian election show just how hard unity will be in Latin America’s largest nation

November 2022

“There is lots of evidence of fraud,” says Bolsonaro voter Serge. “The worst part is those trying to bring these cases forward are not able to present their findings. The media won’t air the claims and the government is censoring them on the internet saying they are spreading disinformation.”

Serge echoes many right-wing claims that the voting in Brazil is rigged because there is no paper trail. Voting is fully electronic and thus it is easy to say that there is fraud because you can claim someone manipulated the technology and a recount is not possible. Even if there is no smoking gun proving fraud, the assumption that a computer is manipulatable is as good as a smoking gun for those who already distrusts the government.

The electronic voting, however, was cited by the New York Times as a reason why Brazil has avoided the issues that plagued the United States in 2020. Brazil could quickly count and announce the election results on election night and left no room for the questioning of late changing results.

By all reliable accounts, Brazil's electronic voting was reliable in 2022

The Times also cited Brazil’s more effective crackdown of election disinformation. Brazil has a national election czar empowered to shutdown and censor sources deemed to be spreading lies about the election process. While acknowledging the risks of such an approach, the Times takes a generally positive view of the crackdown on disinformation.

To people like Serge, however, the election czar is a one-sided censor. “The only people who are censured are those who say Lula is cheating, not Bolsonaro. Also, in left-wing parts of Brazil like the northeast Serge claims pro-Bolsonaro ads were not even allowed on the airwaves. Serge says the mainstream media refuses to investigate fraud claims because they are anti-Bolsonaro. He also claims the international press, like the New York Times, has a Lula bias.

To legitimize his points, Serge sends me an article about one of Bolsonaro’s rivals calling for an investigation into real questions of fraud. In addition to the article Serge sends, there are plenty of people – ranging from relatively respectable to totally loony, Brazilian and non-Brazilian – who spread theories and doubts about the honesty of the 2022 Brazilian election. As BBC News Brasil points out, these theories take specific data points out of context or only tell half a story which in turn feeds further doubt.

Serge admits Bolsonaro is not a good president but he voted for him because he despises Lula. Serge believes Lula is a crook who was let out of jail by a Supreme Court he mostly appointed while president. Lula served 18 months in jail for corruption before the Supreme Court vacated his conviction. The Supreme Court has a majority of judges appointed by left-wing presidents and as such Serge assumes the decision to vacate Lula’s conviction was political.

Serge’s fear is that Lula will appoint more left-wing judges who will further compromise the rule of law. He is also terrified that Brazil will follow Nicaragua and Venezuela into left-wing dictatorships. Serge already thinks Lula won by rigging the election so to him a step toward a full-blown dictatorship is a logical next step.

Ana’s relief and optimism is a stark contrast to Serge’s pessimism and suspicion. Ana is a medical student in Brazil’s northeastern state of Pernambuco who, while not passionate about Lula, sees him as a far better alternative to Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro’s pre-election rhetoric of election fraud and the possibility of a coup was “super stressful”. As of the end of November 2022, however, there has not been any major, concerted attempt to deny the results of the election to stay in power and a transition of power has begun.

While not overly political, she is proud of the national health care system, known as SUS. The SUS (established first in 1988) is a symbol of the expansion of the Brazilian state in the 1990s and early 2000s. The first Lula government of 2002-2010 greatly expanded investment in the SUS while Bolsonaro cut investment in public health. Four more years of Bolsonaro would further hurt the SUS, she feared.

As of November 2022, Brazil's police and military have not intervened to help Bolsonaro stay in power

In addition, Ana feared that a second Bolsonaro term would hurt democracy and be extremely chaotic. Ana views Bolsonaro as an out of control maniac who has little strategy. The unpredictability of Bolsonaro adds to her stress. One never knows what crazy stunt he will pull from one day to the next.

Bolsonaro’s supporters, moreover, greatly worry Ana. After the election throughout November 2022, there have been roadblocks by pro-Bolsonaro protesters throughout Brazil that have impeded traffic on major highways. Many of Bolsonaro’s supporters are likely to be armed, making the threat of violence always present.

The anger expressed by Bolsonaro supporters sits in contrast to the outward joy of Lula’s supporters. Ana said that throughout her city, whose majority supported Lula, there were parties in the street the night of his victory.

What the Brazil election shows, just like the recent U.S. elections, is that choosing a leader is not about just choosing a leader. For both sides, the election was about also defeating the other side to protect it from a maniac who will do irreparable harm to the country. When your opponent is the devil incarnate, accepting them as your leader is difficult – even if it is only for four years.

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